Israel versus Lebanon and Hezbollah: a prelude to attacking Syria and Iran?

Perhaps you've seen news reports of Israel blowing the ever-loving shit out of Lebanon in a Middle East already drowning in tension. What's this all about? Is it really just about one captured Israeli soldier?

Jeff over at Rigorous Intution implies that Israel is working behind the scenes with American neocons to spark a war with Iran:

Israel's war upon Lebanon would be a disproportionate response if Israel were actually responding to the kidnapping of two of its soldiers. It isn't, of course. (If it were, we may have seen a limited cross-border incursion that resembled a rescue mission, rather than these blunt-force deep attacks on Lebanese infrastructure.) Rather the war, like most wars of aggression, is a response to the pathological necessities of the aggressor's ideology.

America's Countdown: Tehran has been stuck at 20 minutes and holding for a couple of months now, derailed by Iran's rational posture regarding its nuclear ambitions and the ongoing thwarting of anything approaching even the Bush administration's benchmark for a casus belli. Israel's hawks, by smashing in the back door, are baiting Iran to action, which would goad the US to crash through the front. Israeli military claims, trumpeted by FoxNews, that the Haifa rockets were fired by Iranian Guard units, and the absurd suggestion that Hezbollah intends to transport their captured soldiers to Iran, say forcefully that this isn't about Lebanon, though for now it will be mostly the Lebanese who perish.

Could it be that this war is just a provocation for Iran? Iran has already taken the bait by saying they will defend Syria if Israel attacks Syria. Israel has reportedly given Syria a 72-hour ultimatum to stop Hezbollah activity within its borders or face attack. Interestingly, this warning was revealed by a Pentagon official. Other neocons are insisting that Syria and Iran are behind the kidnapping of the Israeli soldier(s) that is the ostensible impetus behind the attacks.

Meanwhile, the right-wing talk show hosts are already saying that we're witnessing the beginning of World War III or World War IV, depending on how you count (I prefer WWIV). Since they are the mouthpieces of the ones planning and instigating these wars, I tend to believe them.

This is a dangerous game the neocons are playing. First, they accuse Hezbollah, Syria and Iran of making a dangerous bid for more influence (how does supposedly masterminding the kidnapping of one or two soldiers in Gaza gain you more influence? The neocons never seem to explain that line of reasoning), then they let Israel go nuts and bomb the hell out of whoever they want -- so of course they go after Hezbollah in Lebanon since Lebanon can't really fight back.

What's next according to the neocon plan? I'm guessing that Israel will try it's best to lure Syria into the fight. Syria would be stupid to fall for this, but if they are attacked I'm sure they will respond. Israel doesn't want to be seen as being the aggressor so I doubt they will simply invade. They need a pretext. Hezbollah provides that as a terrorist organization that is supposedly hiding in Lebanon and Syria. Israel can claim to be chasing fleeing Hezbollah fighters right into Syria.

That still doesn't absolve Israel's actions in the international community, however. They need something more. No doubt the neocons will try to manufacture some sort of excuse for Israel -- just as every other part of this exercise in preemptive warfare has been manufactured. If the neocons can't deke Syria and Iran into open warfare they'll have to go through the tiresome process of starting a Coalition of the Willing (part 2) and convincing the U.N. Security Council that we need to invade and conquer Iran before they attack us with their mighty turbans.

We just have to hope that Iran and Syria keep their cool while the pressure all around them mounts. They last thing they should do is make any threatening moves. That will only spell destruction for them and their people.

They need to stall for time before the neofascists manage to draw them into a fight. What they really need is, well.... us! We, the people of the United States of America, need to take back our government from the tyrant Bush and end his reign of terror across the globe. Only then will the situation return to some level of calmness. As long as Bush is in power the King of Terror rules.