Here’s the conundrum: The nation’s tens of thousands of polling stations report to the capital in random order after the polls close. Therefore, statistically, you’d expect the results to remain roughly unchanged as vote totals come in. As expected, AMLO was ahead of the right-wing candidate Calderon all night by an unchanging margin — until after midnight. Suddenly, precincts began reporting wins for Calderon of five to one, the ten to one, then as polling nearly ended, of one-hundred to one.
How odd. I checked my concerns with Professor Victor Romero of Mexico’s National University who concluded that the reported results must have been a “miracle.” As he put it, a “religious event,” but a statistical impossibility. There were two explanations, said the professor: either the Lord was fixing the outcome or operatives of the ruling party were cranking in a massive number of ballots when they realized their man was about to lose.
It doesn’t look good for Mexico. The TRIFE has only agreed to examine 9% of the ballots cast in the election. This election was stolen right out from under Mexico’s nose, and the people know it. But what can they do when the entrenched power structure refuses to relinquish their grip on the government?
Things are not so different here in the U.S. The only problem, as Palast makes clear, is that we don’t even have a complete paper ballot record because of electronic voting:
Does this mean US activists should give up on the fight for paper ballots and give in to robo-voting, computerized democracy in a box. [sic] Hell, no! Lopez Obrador has put hundreds of thousands in the street week after week demanding, “voto por voto” — recount every vote. But AMLO’s supporters can only demand a re-count because the paper ballot makes a recount possible. Were Mexico’s elections held on a Diebold special, there would be no way to recount the electrons floating in cyberspace.
When are people going to wake up to the fact that electronic voting cannot be trusted?
Oh well. The elites find a way to win no matter what. They hold all the cards except popular support. I guess there’s not much we can do but make it hard for them by bringing out the vote.
As for Mexico, it seems clear to me that this election should be declared “null and void” and a revote scheduled immediately. Will the TRIFE lay it on the line for democracy? We’ll have to wait and see.